Mobile Music Downloads: Analysis and forecasts, 2005-2010
Mobile Music Downloads: Analysis and forecasts, 2005-2010
The worldwide success of ringtones has sparked a widely held belief that downloading music to mobile handsets will become an even greater revenue generator. Mobile operators, record companies and handset manufacturers are aggressively pursuin this market. But will downloading music files be greeted with the same consumer enthusiasm and willingness to pay? Find out by purchasing visiongain's latest strategic report.
Audio downloading and streaming are both in early stages of development in the mobile space. Visiongain believes that while streaming music has limited potential, particularly over GPRS networks, the ability to download full audio tracks over 3G represents a significantly more viable long-term revenue opportunity. But just how large can that revenue be? And how can you and your company generate these revenues.
This 130+ page visiongain report examines the market for downloading music on mobile phones, and assesses the opportunities and hurdles facing it. The impact mobile downloads will have on both the mobile and music industries is also analysed. Plus dedicated recommendations are delivered to you, throughout the report.
Visiongain believes that mobile music download services, if positioned correctly, offer substantial scope to both the music and mobile industries. For mobile music downloads to succeed, however, a number of critical issues need to be resolved and hurdles overcome, including DRM and business models.
Music phones will have to compete against dedicated MP3 players that offer superior a experience and performance. Furthermore, these portable MP3 players in conjunction with iTunes and other online music services are shaping the mobile music space by limiting operator's pricing options for mobile music downloads.
- How can mobile companies compete with MP3 players?
- What storage requirements will the market demand?
Establishing successful business models will be difficult and this report takes an in-depth look at online and cellular cost dynamics. Pricing full track downloads via the cellular channel in a way that is both profitable and attractive to the end-user is a major challenge. Visiongain's brand new report makes that challenge easier.
With over 25+ tables and over 40+ charts, this report provides you with the leading analysis of your market today and for the rest of the decade. I look forward to receiving your order.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
1.1 The success of ringtones will not necessarily translate to track downloads
1.2 The challenge from portable MP3 players
1.3 Pricing full track downloads on mobile handsets
1.4 Issues to be resolved
1.5 Two models of downloading via mobile
1.6 Defining mobile music downloads
1.7 Focus of this report
Chapter 2 Overview
2.1 Mobile music as mobile entertainment
Figure 1.1: Mobile entertainment value chain
2.1.1 The most promising current and future mobile applications
Chart 2.1: Mobile entertainment revenue by type in 2003
Chart 2.2: Mobile entertainment user by service type, 2003
Chart 2.3: Mobile entertainment user by service type, 2009
2.2 Music industry structure: the "Big Four"
Chart 2.4: Global market share of music labels, 2004
2.3 Why music is suited to mobile
2.4 Various forms of mobile music
Figure 2.2: Defining mobile phone music
2.4.1 Mobile music formats
2.4.2 The success of ringtones has sparked interest in mobile music
Chart 2.5: Sales of CD singles vs ringtones in the US, 2000-03
Chart 2.6: Sales of CD singles vs ringtones in Europe, 2000-03
2.4.2.1 Case study: KDDI
2.4.3 Ringtones are evolving
Figure 2.3: Evolution of mobile music services
2.4.4 Ringback tones
Chart 2.7: Global ringback tone revenues, 2004-2009
2.4.6 Truetones
2.4. swapping has changed the economics of the music industry
Table 1.1: Changing music industry models
Chart 2.17: Household penetration of CD read/write drivers
2.6.1 How MP3 downloads have changed music ownership and distribution
2.6.2 Online downloads involve slim operating margins
Chart 2.18: Best case scenario for operating margins on music downloads
Chart 2.19: Worst case scenario for operating margins on music downloads
2.6.3 Profits come from hardware, not content
2.6.3.1 Download and subscription service integration
2.7 Online download services profiled
2.7.1 iTunes
Table 1.2: Pros and cons of iTunes
2.7.1.1 Impact of Apple's iTunes on the music market
Table 1.3: iPod sales before and after iTunes launch
Chart 2.20: iPod shipments, 2000-2004
2.7.1.2 iTunes 4.9
2.7.1.2.1 The rise of podcasting
2.7.1.3 The iPod mini
Image 1: The iPod mini
2.7.1.4 iTunes MVNO
2.7.2 Napster
Table 1.4: Pros and cons of Napster
2.7.3 Rhapsody
Table 1.5: Rhapsody services
2.7.4 eMusic
Table 1.6: Pros and cons of eMusic
Table 1.7: Comparison of online music download services
Chapter 3 Technology and handsets
3.1 Enabling delivery of mobile music
Table 3.1: Delivery options for mobile music
3.1.1 Streaming
3.1.2 Downloading
3.1.3 Broadcasting
3.1.4 Central music portal
3.2 Technology capabilities for downloading audio files
3.2.1 GPRS and EDGE
Table 3.2: Throughput requirements for different mobile applications
3.2.2 W-CDMA
Chart 3.1: GPRS and W-CDMA spectral efficiency comparison
3.2.3 HSDPA
Chart 3.2: Latency of different mobile technologies
Table 3.3: Comparison of capabilities of technologies
3.2.4 Advances in network efficiency will make mobile music downloads more competitive
3.3 WLAN and PAN connections
Chart 3.3: Global hybrid WWAN (cellular)/WLAN handset shipments, 2004-2010
3.4 Delivery process for mobile downloads
Figure 3.1: Service architecture for mobile music over-the-air downloads
3.5 Handsets are evolving towards wireless MP3 players
Table 3.4: Mobile handsets with built-in MP3 players
3.5.1 Lessons from the Nokia 3300 music phone
3.5.2 Music file delivery needs vendors to play a critical role
3.6 Integrating music download capability into mobile handsets
3.6.1 Vendor objectives with mobile music
3.6.2 Cost of handsets
3.6.3 Device limitations
Table 3.5:0 Portable MP3 players compared
3.6.3.1 HDDs in dedicated MP3 players
Table 3.6: Cost per GB of storage of various MP3 players
3.6.3.2 HDDs will kick-start the mobile music mass-market
Chart 3.4: Shipments of one-inch HDDs, 2002-04
Table 3.7: Small form factor HDD manufacturers and products
3.6.3.3 Samsung's V5400 bridges the gap between mobile phones and portable MP3s
3.7 The case for integrated phone/music devices
3.7.1 The O2 Digital Music Player
Image 3.1: O2 DMP
Table 3.8: DMP specifications
3.8 M-USE service
3.8.1 The pros and cons of M-USE
3.9 Chaoticom
3.10 Can mobile phones compete with MP3 players and other portable CE devices?
Chart 3.5: Global shipments of portable stand-alone MP3 players, 2003-2009
Chart 3.6: Shipments of mobile phones with built-in MP3 players, 2004-2009
3.10.1 Motorola
3.10.1.1 Apple-Motorola partnership is a sign of things to come
Image 3.2: iTunes phone
Chart 3.7: MP3 player market share, H1 2004*
3.10.2 Nokia
3.10.3 Samsung
3.10.4 Sony Ericsson
3.10.5 LG
Chapter 4 Global markets and deployments
Table 4.1: Global mobile music download service launches
4.1 Europe
4.1.1 European operators are adopting an aggressive approach to music downloads
Table 4.2: European mobile music download services compared (December 2004)
4.1.2 T-Mobile
Table 4.3: Ear Phones handsets
Chart 4.1: Ear Phone sales
4.1.3 O2< 4.4: EMI internet, mobile and subscription revenue mix by region, FY2003/04
4.4.3 Sony/BMG
4.4.4 Warner
Chapter 5 Strategic options and forecasts
5.1 Complexity of advanced mobile music value chain
Figure 5.1: The mobile music supply chain
5.2 Operator positioning
5.2.1 How operators can generate revenues from OTA downloads
5.2.2 Music downloads will help service differentiation
5.2.3 Tackling low margins
Chart 5.1: Cost breakdown per $0.99 online music download
Figure 5.2: The UK business case for downloadable mobile music
5.2.4 Operators must add value
5.3 Vendor strategies
5.4 Content providers
5.4.1 Balancing expectations for mobile downloads
5.4.2 Record labels as MVNOs?
5.4.2.1 Case study: Universal Mobile
5.5 The role of aggregators
5.6 Pricing mobile music downloads
5.6.1 Will consumers spend a premium for downloading mobile music?
5.6.1.1 Pricing must be flat
5.6.2 A viable business model needs to be established
Table 5.1: Value distribution of a typical music CD (â¬)
5.6.2.1 GPRS does not present a viable business case for downloading music
5.7 Will audio downloads be the 'killer app' for 3G?
5.7.1 The 3G landscape
Chart 5.2: Global W-CDMA handsets sales, 2003-2009
Table 5.2: Global W-CDMA handset sales, 2003-2009
Chart 5.3: W-CDMA users worldwide, 2003-2009
Table 5.3: W-CDMA users worldwide, 2003-2009
5.7.2 The economics of audio downloads from a network perspective
5.7.2.1 W-CDMA significantly increases profit margins
Table 5.4: Cost per MByte for different mobile network technologies
5.7.3 Music downloads from a user's perspective
Table 5.5: Approximate download time for a three-minute MP3 file over different mobile networks
5.7.4 Music vs video
5.8 End-user acceptance: is demand there?
5.9 Marketing to target end-user segments
Chart 5.4: Users interested in photo messaging and downloading audio by age group
5.10 Will mobile music complement or compete with other channels?
5.11 Issues to consider and hurdles to overcome
5.13.1 Copyright and licensing
5.13.2 Security and rights management
5.13.2.1 DRM system architecture
5.13.2.2 DRM issues
5.13.2.3 OMA DRM 2.0 Enabler Release
Table 5.6: OMA 2.0 features
5.13.3 Revenue sharing
Chart 5.5: Revenue share on ringtones
Chart 5.6: Revenue share on downloads
5.14 Will there be a mobile Napster?
5.15 Revenues
Chart 5.7: Global mobile music download revenues, 2005-2010
Chart 5.8: Mobile music download revenues by region, 2005-2010
Chart 5.9: Regional revenues, 2005 & 2010 (%)
Chapter 6 Conclusions and recommendations
6.1 Conclusions
6.2 Mobile operator recommendations
6.3 Content provider recommendations
6.4 Vendor recommendations
Appendix A About visiongain
Appendix B Report evaluation form
Companies and organisations mentioned in this report
3
Amazon
AOL Time Warner
Apple
AT&T Wireless
Artificial Life
Atmel
Audiovox
AWG
Beep Science
BenQ
BMG
Bounce Technology
BT
Bugs Music
Buongiorno Vitaminic
Buy.com
BuyMusic.com
Casio
Chaoticom
Chrysalis
Cingular Wireless
CMLA
CNN
Coding Technologies
CoreMedia
Cornice
Creative Labs
Creative Technology
DDI Pocket
Dell
Digital World Services
DiMagic
Disney
DMD Secure
EMI
eMusic
Ericsson
ESPN
Eurotel
Excite Japan
Gracenote
Grokster
GS Magicstor
Handspring
Hitachi
Hitachi Global Storage Technologies
HP
IBM
IFPI
Infospace
Iobox
iRiver International
KaZaA
KDDI
Kyocera
LG Electronics
LG Telecom
Liquid
LogicaCMG
Loudeye
MBCO
MCPS
Melodeo
Microsoft
Motorola
Telefonica Moviles
Telenor
TeliaSonera
Texas Instruments
Tiger Telematics
TIM
T-Mobile
Toshiba
UBC Media
Universal
V2
Verizon Wireless
Virgin Megastores
Virgin Mobile
Vodafone
Wal-Mart
Warner
WES
WiderThan
Yahoo
Yamaha
YBM Seoul Records
Love Quotes
The worldwide success of ringtones has sparked a widely held belief that downloading music to mobile handsets will become an even greater revenue generator. Mobile operators, record companies and handset manufacturers are aggressively pursuin this market. But will downloading music files be greeted with the same consumer enthusiasm and willingness to pay? Find out by purchasing visiongain's latest strategic report.
Audio downloading and streaming are both in early stages of development in the mobile space. Visiongain believes that while streaming music has limited potential, particularly over GPRS networks, the ability to download full audio tracks over 3G represents a significantly more viable long-term revenue opportunity. But just how large can that revenue be? And how can you and your company generate these revenues.
This 130+ page visiongain report examines the market for downloading music on mobile phones, and assesses the opportunities and hurdles facing it. The impact mobile downloads will have on both the mobile and music industries is also analysed. Plus dedicated recommendations are delivered to you, throughout the report.
Visiongain believes that mobile music download services, if positioned correctly, offer substantial scope to both the music and mobile industries. For mobile music downloads to succeed, however, a number of critical issues need to be resolved and hurdles overcome, including DRM and business models.
Music phones will have to compete against dedicated MP3 players that offer superior a experience and performance. Furthermore, these portable MP3 players in conjunction with iTunes and other online music services are shaping the mobile music space by limiting operator's pricing options for mobile music downloads.
- How can mobile companies compete with MP3 players?
- What storage requirements will the market demand?
Establishing successful business models will be difficult and this report takes an in-depth look at online and cellular cost dynamics. Pricing full track downloads via the cellular channel in a way that is both profitable and attractive to the end-user is a major challenge. Visiongain's brand new report makes that challenge easier.
With over 25+ tables and over 40+ charts, this report provides you with the leading analysis of your market today and for the rest of the decade. I look forward to receiving your order.
Table of contents
Chapter 1 Executive Summary
1.1 The success of ringtones will not necessarily translate to track downloads
1.2 The challenge from portable MP3 players
1.3 Pricing full track downloads on mobile handsets
1.4 Issues to be resolved
1.5 Two models of downloading via mobile
1.6 Defining mobile music downloads
1.7 Focus of this report
Chapter 2 Overview
2.1 Mobile music as mobile entertainment
Figure 1.1: Mobile entertainment value chain
2.1.1 The most promising current and future mobile applications
Chart 2.1: Mobile entertainment revenue by type in 2003
Chart 2.2: Mobile entertainment user by service type, 2003
Chart 2.3: Mobile entertainment user by service type, 2009
2.2 Music industry structure: the "Big Four"
Chart 2.4: Global market share of music labels, 2004
2.3 Why music is suited to mobile
2.4 Various forms of mobile music
Figure 2.2: Defining mobile phone music
2.4.1 Mobile music formats
2.4.2 The success of ringtones has sparked interest in mobile music
Chart 2.5: Sales of CD singles vs ringtones in the US, 2000-03
Chart 2.6: Sales of CD singles vs ringtones in Europe, 2000-03
2.4.2.1 Case study: KDDI
2.4.3 Ringtones are evolving
Figure 2.3: Evolution of mobile music services
2.4.4 Ringback tones
Chart 2.7: Global ringback tone revenues, 2004-2009
2.4.6 Truetones
2.4. swapping has changed the economics of the music industry
Table 1.1: Changing music industry models
Chart 2.17: Household penetration of CD read/write drivers
2.6.1 How MP3 downloads have changed music ownership and distribution
2.6.2 Online downloads involve slim operating margins
Chart 2.18: Best case scenario for operating margins on music downloads
Chart 2.19: Worst case scenario for operating margins on music downloads
2.6.3 Profits come from hardware, not content
2.6.3.1 Download and subscription service integration
2.7 Online download services profiled
2.7.1 iTunes
Table 1.2: Pros and cons of iTunes
2.7.1.1 Impact of Apple's iTunes on the music market
Table 1.3: iPod sales before and after iTunes launch
Chart 2.20: iPod shipments, 2000-2004
2.7.1.2 iTunes 4.9
2.7.1.2.1 The rise of podcasting
2.7.1.3 The iPod mini
Image 1: The iPod mini
2.7.1.4 iTunes MVNO
2.7.2 Napster
Table 1.4: Pros and cons of Napster
2.7.3 Rhapsody
Table 1.5: Rhapsody services
2.7.4 eMusic
Table 1.6: Pros and cons of eMusic
Table 1.7: Comparison of online music download services
Chapter 3 Technology and handsets
3.1 Enabling delivery of mobile music
Table 3.1: Delivery options for mobile music
3.1.1 Streaming
3.1.2 Downloading
3.1.3 Broadcasting
3.1.4 Central music portal
3.2 Technology capabilities for downloading audio files
3.2.1 GPRS and EDGE
Table 3.2: Throughput requirements for different mobile applications
3.2.2 W-CDMA
Chart 3.1: GPRS and W-CDMA spectral efficiency comparison
3.2.3 HSDPA
Chart 3.2: Latency of different mobile technologies
Table 3.3: Comparison of capabilities of technologies
3.2.4 Advances in network efficiency will make mobile music downloads more competitive
3.3 WLAN and PAN connections
Chart 3.3: Global hybrid WWAN (cellular)/WLAN handset shipments, 2004-2010
3.4 Delivery process for mobile downloads
Figure 3.1: Service architecture for mobile music over-the-air downloads
3.5 Handsets are evolving towards wireless MP3 players
Table 3.4: Mobile handsets with built-in MP3 players
3.5.1 Lessons from the Nokia 3300 music phone
3.5.2 Music file delivery needs vendors to play a critical role
3.6 Integrating music download capability into mobile handsets
3.6.1 Vendor objectives with mobile music
3.6.2 Cost of handsets
3.6.3 Device limitations
Table 3.5:0 Portable MP3 players compared
3.6.3.1 HDDs in dedicated MP3 players
Table 3.6: Cost per GB of storage of various MP3 players
3.6.3.2 HDDs will kick-start the mobile music mass-market
Chart 3.4: Shipments of one-inch HDDs, 2002-04
Table 3.7: Small form factor HDD manufacturers and products
3.6.3.3 Samsung's V5400 bridges the gap between mobile phones and portable MP3s
3.7 The case for integrated phone/music devices
3.7.1 The O2 Digital Music Player
Image 3.1: O2 DMP
Table 3.8: DMP specifications
3.8 M-USE service
3.8.1 The pros and cons of M-USE
3.9 Chaoticom
3.10 Can mobile phones compete with MP3 players and other portable CE devices?
Chart 3.5: Global shipments of portable stand-alone MP3 players, 2003-2009
Chart 3.6: Shipments of mobile phones with built-in MP3 players, 2004-2009
3.10.1 Motorola
3.10.1.1 Apple-Motorola partnership is a sign of things to come
Image 3.2: iTunes phone
Chart 3.7: MP3 player market share, H1 2004*
3.10.2 Nokia
3.10.3 Samsung
3.10.4 Sony Ericsson
3.10.5 LG
Chapter 4 Global markets and deployments
Table 4.1: Global mobile music download service launches
4.1 Europe
4.1.1 European operators are adopting an aggressive approach to music downloads
Table 4.2: European mobile music download services compared (December 2004)
4.1.2 T-Mobile
Table 4.3: Ear Phones handsets
Chart 4.1: Ear Phone sales
4.1.3 O2< 4.4: EMI internet, mobile and subscription revenue mix by region, FY2003/04
4.4.3 Sony/BMG
4.4.4 Warner
Chapter 5 Strategic options and forecasts
5.1 Complexity of advanced mobile music value chain
Figure 5.1: The mobile music supply chain
5.2 Operator positioning
5.2.1 How operators can generate revenues from OTA downloads
5.2.2 Music downloads will help service differentiation
5.2.3 Tackling low margins
Chart 5.1: Cost breakdown per $0.99 online music download
Figure 5.2: The UK business case for downloadable mobile music
5.2.4 Operators must add value
5.3 Vendor strategies
5.4 Content providers
5.4.1 Balancing expectations for mobile downloads
5.4.2 Record labels as MVNOs?
5.4.2.1 Case study: Universal Mobile
5.5 The role of aggregators
5.6 Pricing mobile music downloads
5.6.1 Will consumers spend a premium for downloading mobile music?
5.6.1.1 Pricing must be flat
5.6.2 A viable business model needs to be established
Table 5.1: Value distribution of a typical music CD (â¬)
5.6.2.1 GPRS does not present a viable business case for downloading music
5.7 Will audio downloads be the 'killer app' for 3G?
5.7.1 The 3G landscape
Chart 5.2: Global W-CDMA handsets sales, 2003-2009
Table 5.2: Global W-CDMA handset sales, 2003-2009
Chart 5.3: W-CDMA users worldwide, 2003-2009
Table 5.3: W-CDMA users worldwide, 2003-2009
5.7.2 The economics of audio downloads from a network perspective
5.7.2.1 W-CDMA significantly increases profit margins
Table 5.4: Cost per MByte for different mobile network technologies
5.7.3 Music downloads from a user's perspective
Table 5.5: Approximate download time for a three-minute MP3 file over different mobile networks
5.7.4 Music vs video
5.8 End-user acceptance: is demand there?
5.9 Marketing to target end-user segments
Chart 5.4: Users interested in photo messaging and downloading audio by age group
5.10 Will mobile music complement or compete with other channels?
5.11 Issues to consider and hurdles to overcome
5.13.1 Copyright and licensing
5.13.2 Security and rights management
5.13.2.1 DRM system architecture
5.13.2.2 DRM issues
5.13.2.3 OMA DRM 2.0 Enabler Release
Table 5.6: OMA 2.0 features
5.13.3 Revenue sharing
Chart 5.5: Revenue share on ringtones
Chart 5.6: Revenue share on downloads
5.14 Will there be a mobile Napster?
5.15 Revenues
Chart 5.7: Global mobile music download revenues, 2005-2010
Chart 5.8: Mobile music download revenues by region, 2005-2010
Chart 5.9: Regional revenues, 2005 & 2010 (%)
Chapter 6 Conclusions and recommendations
6.1 Conclusions
6.2 Mobile operator recommendations
6.3 Content provider recommendations
6.4 Vendor recommendations
Appendix A About visiongain
Appendix B Report evaluation form
Companies and organisations mentioned in this report
3
Amazon
AOL Time Warner
Apple
AT&T Wireless
Artificial Life
Atmel
Audiovox
AWG
Beep Science
BenQ
BMG
Bounce Technology
BT
Bugs Music
Buongiorno Vitaminic
Buy.com
BuyMusic.com
Casio
Chaoticom
Chrysalis
Cingular Wireless
CMLA
CNN
Coding Technologies
CoreMedia
Cornice
Creative Labs
Creative Technology
DDI Pocket
Dell
Digital World Services
DiMagic
Disney
DMD Secure
EMI
eMusic
Ericsson
ESPN
Eurotel
Excite Japan
Gracenote
Grokster
GS Magicstor
Handspring
Hitachi
Hitachi Global Storage Technologies
HP
IBM
IFPI
Infospace
Iobox
iRiver International
KaZaA
KDDI
Kyocera
LG Electronics
LG Telecom
Liquid
LogicaCMG
Loudeye
MBCO
MCPS
Melodeo
Microsoft
Motorola
Telefonica Moviles
Telenor
TeliaSonera
Texas Instruments
Tiger Telematics
TIM
T-Mobile
Toshiba
UBC Media
Universal
V2
Verizon Wireless
Virgin Megastores
Virgin Mobile
Vodafone
Wal-Mart
Warner
WES
WiderThan
Yahoo
Yamaha
YBM Seoul Records
Love Quotes
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